Raw Materials Maintain A Strong Trend, Natural Rubber Has Sufficient Momentum To Rise

- Nov 04, 2020-

On November 3, 2020, the main rubber contract opened at 15,250 yuan/ton, and the closing price yesterday was 15,635 yuan/ton; the opening price of rubber 2011 was 13,590 yuan/ton, and the closing price yesterday was 13,855 yuan/ton; the opening price of rubber 2101 was 15,250 yuan today /Ton, the closing price yesterday was 15635/ton; the opening price of rubber 2103 today was 14880 yuan/ton, and the closing price yesterday was 15265 yuan/ton; the opening price of rubber 2104 today was 14790 yuan/ton, and the closing price yesterday was 15155 yuan/ton.


Since October, due to factors such as weather and labor shortage in Southeast Asia, the harvesting process in the main natural rubber producing areas has been blocked, and the price of natural rubber cargo has risen broadly. In mid-October, the weekly increase of natural rubber in Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Vietnam was more than 10%. On October 22, Vietnam and Hainan encountered a new round of typhoon and labor shortage, and raw materials remained tight. As of October 22, the purchase price of glue in Hat Yai, Thailand was 61.00 baht/kg, an increase of 17.31% from the previous node.


As of October 30, 2020, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has 247910 (3985) tons of natural rubber stocks and 221030 (-490) tons of warehouse receipts. The inventory of No. 20 rubber is 41,420 (1855) tons, and the warehouse receipt is 37,387 (2056) tons. As of October 30, 2020, the start-up load of all-steel tires for tire companies in Shandong was 75.30%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points from last week and an increase of 3.73 percentage points from the same period last year. The domestic tire company's semi-steel tire operating load was 71.01%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.85 percentage points from the same period last year.


Due to the epidemic, the demand for gloves has skyrocketed, and the profitability of latex production at home and abroad is high, resulting in a decrease in the output of high-end rubber such as smoked sheet rubber and full latex, and a firm price. Overseas production cuts have triggered further production cut expectations. Better exports and Thai demonstrations and typhoons passing through the main producing areas will stimulate supply concerns, which are also part of the reason for the possible rise. It is expected that with the continued severe weather such as strong rains in the market outlook, the production capacity of the main natural rubber producing areas will hardly increase significantly, the supply of natural rubber in Asia will remain tight, and the natural rubber market may maintain an upward trend.