Natural Rubber Has A Rising Probability And Maintains A Wide Fluctuation Trend In The Short Term

- Aug 22, 2020-

On August 21, 2020, the main rubber contract opened at 12,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price yesterday was 12,370 yuan/ton; the opening price of rubber 2009 was 11135 yuan/ton, and the closing price yesterday was 11145 yuan/ton; the opening price of rubber 2010 was 11170 yuan today /Ton, yesterday's closing price of 11210 yuan/ton; rubber 2011 today's opening price of 11255 yuan/ton, yesterday's closing price of 11265 yuan/ton; rubber 2101 today's opening price of 12360 yuan/ton, yesterday’s closing price of 12370 yuan/ton; natural rubber futures The price was lowered slightly.


Affected by "Typhoon Sinlagu", heavy rains occurred in some areas in Thailand, which hindered the rubber tapping process in the production areas; the main natural rubber production areas in Malaysia were rainy, affecting the rubber tapping process, and the raw material output was relatively tight; rainfall in the main natural rubber production areas in Vietnam Too much, the supply of raw materials is tightening. The tapping work in the main natural rubber producing areas of Southeast Asia is not smooth, and the supply of raw materials remains tight. September-October is still in the rainy season, and production is expected to show a slow increase, and the supply pressure in the production areas is relatively limited.


As of last weekend, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 70.73%, an increase of 1.27% month-on-month, and 19.12% year-on-year; the operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 74.35%, an increase of 1.02% month-on-month and 24.44% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than last year. In July 2020, automobile production and sales reached 2.201 million and 2.112 million respectively, a decrease of 5.3% and 8.2% from the previous month, and an increase of 21.9% and 16.4% from the same period last year. Overseas July new car registrations in the UK increased by 11.3% year-on-year, and Spanish new car registrations increased by 1.1% year-on-year.


The new crown pneumonia epidemic has led to a surge in global demand for rubber gloves. Thailand has expanded its latex glove production line and domestic demand has increased. To a certain extent, it has also increased the market's tightness in raw material supply. Malaysian glove orders are abundant, more glue flows into latex processing plants, and the supply of standard glue has been tight in recent months. The number of new cases of new coronary pneumonia in Vietnam has increased, and many blocks in the north have been blocked, and the mobility of people has been restricted, which has imposed certain restrictions on the development of rubber tapping.


At present, the supply of raw materials in major natural rubber production areas around the world is tight, and the release of new rubber production capacity is limited. The annual natural rubber output may decline; superimposed on the gradual recovery of domestic and foreign terminal market demand, the contradiction between supply and demand has eased, and the fundamentals have improved. Natural rubber Or maintain a wide range of shocks, and there may be a high probability of upward trend in the long-term.