As the largest country in rubber demand, China's demand for rubber continues to grow. The data shows that in 2015 my country's demand for natural rubber was 4.78 million tons, and after three years the rubber demand increased to 5.67 million tons. Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, domestic rubber demand has fallen rapidly, and the demand for rubber in other countries is also not optimistic. At present, my country's epidemic situation is effectively controlled, and the demand for rubber continues to recover. In the second half of the year, Chinese market demand will promote the export markets of international rubber-producing countries.
In June 2020, Vietnam exported 110,000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 46.9%; the export value was US$130 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.5%. In June, the average export price of natural rubber in Vietnam fell by 16.9% year-on-year to US$1,182 per ton, resulting in an average export price drop of 2.9% in the first half of the year to US$1,330 per ton. Statistics released by the Vietnam Customs Administration show that in the past 5 months, rubber exports have fallen significantly compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the domestic latex prices in Vietnam are still at a low level in June and are expected to continue to show a downward trend.
In 2019, Vietnam's rubber exports reached 1.69 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year; the export value was US$2.26 billion, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year; of which China is Vietnam's largest rubber export market, with a market share of 66.5%. China imports more than 50% of Vietnam’s total rubber annually from Vietnam. The recovery of China’s market demand in the second half of the year will inevitably affect Vietnam’s rubber export market.
From January to May 2020, Thailand's total export value was 97.899 billion US dollars, down 3.71% year-on-year. In the first five months, major markets such as China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan and ASEAN still achieved 0.2% growth, and the United States also saw a 0.3% increase. In the third quarter, export orders picked up noticeably, focusing on agricultural and sideline foods, or necessities. With the recovery of the national economy, export commodities such as automobiles and spare parts may improve.
Natural rubber is one of Thailand's main export products. Judging from the export market, the second half of the year can become Thailand's dependent export market in China and ASEAN markets. In May, Thailand’s exports to China increased by 15.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative increase in the first five months was 4.7%. Therefore, the Chinese market demand in the second half of the year will inevitably affect Thailand's rubber exports; if demand recovers well, it will promote the recovery of the Thai rubber industry.
As of 2019, the output of Côte d’Ivoire is about 790,000 tons, which has already competed with China. At present, only 10# standard rubber is in circulation in African rubber, and its quality is slightly lower than that of Matai 20# standard rubber, but its price has a greater advantage than Matai printing adhesive. In 2019, Côte d’Ivoire’s rubber imports reached 98,800 tons, and its exports grew rapidly.
From the perspective of the flow of natural rubber exports from Africa, about 68% of the share flows into the European and American markets, and the Asian market accounts for only about 16%, and another 16% is digested locally. From January to May 2020, Côte d’Ivoire exported a total of 418,700 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 34% over the same period last year, of which 54,300 tons were exported to China, accounting for 12.97% of its export share, and its export share increased significantly. China, as the largest country in demand for rubber, is gradually gaining recognition in the Chinese market, and its market share is gradually expanding.
Natural rubber is an important strategic resource and basic industrial raw material in my country. The upstream is composed of rubber tree planting, raw material collection, and simple rubber processing. The midstream is processing rubber raw materials to produce various types of rubber products. my country's rubber resources are seriously deficient in self-sufficiency, and the degree of dependence on imports continues to rise. Although the rise of the reclaimed rubber industry has alleviated the current situation of my country's rubber resource shortage to a certain extent, it is still difficult to make up for the lack of natural rubber self-sufficiency.
In 2019, China's natural rubber import volume (excluding latex) was 1,896,600 tons. Imported natural rubber mainly came from Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. The total import volume reached 1.5226 million tons, accounting for 80.28 of the total natural rubber imports. Thailand It is the largest source country of natural rubber imports in China. Therefore, my country's rubber demand is bound to affect the export markets of several major rubber-producing countries, especially Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.